EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD remains above 1.0700 amid expectations of Fed refraining from further rate hikes
EUR/USD continues to gain ground on Thursday as the prevailing positive sentiment in the market provides support for risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro. This improved risk appetite could be attributed to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
On the upside, EUR/USD is expected to encounter first resistance at the weekly high of 1.0752 (April 26), which is ahead of the key 200-day SMA of 1.0799, and the April peak of 1.0885 (April 9). North from here comes the March high of 1.0981 (March 8), seconded by the weekly top of 1.0998 (January 11), all before the psychological barrier of 1.1000.
Looking south, a break of the 2024 low of 1.0601 (April 16) may signal a return to the November 2023 low of 1.0516 (November 1), which comes before the weekly low of 1.0495 (October 13, 2023). Once this area is reached, a visit to the 2023 bottom of 1.0448 (October 3) is possible before reaching the round milestone of 1.0400.
The 4-hour chart shows a sudden U-turn and the pair now targets 1.0752, ahead of the 200-SMA at 1.0761. Meanwhile, 1.0673 provides early support, ahead of 1.0601 and 1.0516. The relative strength index (RSI) jumped past 58.
Fundamental Overview
The resurgence of downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) encouraged EUR/USD to trim Tuesday’s losses and reclaim the area well beyond the 1.0700 hurdle on Wednesday.
That said, this Dollar's downside momentum accelerated in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to keep its interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, as widely anticipated, at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.
Indeed, the Committee remained consistent with its Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) at 5.25%–5.50% and aimed for borrowing cost reductions but raised concerns about inflation and potential halt in economic balance. The central bank also announced plans to slow down its balance sheet reduction pace, contrasting earlier warnings.
Adding selling pressure to the Greenback, Chair Jerome Powell argued that cutting rates won't be suitable until the Committee is more confident that inflation is returning to the 2% target. Powell said that, with time, current policy measures will be effective in reining in inflation to the target, adding that it's improbable that the next policy adjustment will involve a rate hike.
In the longer run, weakness in the US Dollar is expected to be short-lived due to delayed expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year.
Regarding this, the FedWatch Tool monitored by CME Group indicated that the probability of a 25 bps interest rate cut at the September 18 meeting dropped to nearly 40%.
Following the FOMC event, US yields maintained their initial negative trend, although the broad macro scenario continue to emphasize the divergence in monetary policies between the Fed and other G10 central banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB).
Recent statements from ECB board members have hinted at the possibility of the ECB commencing its easing cycle in June, sparking speculation about three interest rate cuts (or 75 basis points) for the remainder of the year.
Looking forward, the relatively subdued economic fundamentals in the Eurozone, coupled with the resilience of the US economy, strengthen expectations for a stronger Dollar in the medium term, particularly considering the increasing likelihood of the ECB cutting rates well before the Fed.
In this context, EUR/USD is expected to experience a more significant decline in the medium term.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Federal Reserve and Nonfarm Payrolls spell action next week Premium
The EUR/USD pair temporarily reconquered the 1.0700 threshold this week, settling at around that round level. The US Dollar lost its appeal following discouraging US macroeconomic data indicating tepid growth and persistent inflationary pressures.
EUR/USD Big Picture
EUR/USD Bullish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD remains above 1.0700 amid expectations of Fed refraining from further rate hikes
EUR/USD continues to gain ground on Thursday as the prevailing positive sentiment in the market provides support for risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro. This improved risk appetite could be attributed to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
GBP/USD gains traction above 1.2500, Fed keeps rates steady
GBP/USD gains traction near 1.2535 during the early Thursday. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the sharp decline of the US Dollar after the US Federal Reserve left its interest rate unchanged.
USD/JPY holds rebound near 156.00 after probable Japan's intervention-led crash
USD/JPY consolidates the rebound near 156.00, having lost nearly 450 pips in some minutes after the Japanese Yen rallied hard on another suspected Japan FX market intervention in the late American session on Wednesday.
Gold needs to reclaim $2,340 for a sustained recovery
Gold price is consolidating Wednesday’s rebound in Asian trading on Thursday, as buyers await more employment and wage inflation data from the United States for fresh trading impetus. Traders also digest the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell's words delivered late Wednesday.
WTI drops to seven-week lows below $80.00 on surprise build crude inventories
WTI prices loses momentum near seven-week lows of $79.20 on Thursday. A surprise build in US crude stocks weighs on black gold prices. WTI prices edge lower amid signs of easing Middle East geopolitical tensions. The US employment reports on Friday will be closely watched.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.